Hurricane Rita 3rd Most Intense Hurricane Ever

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HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT ... 2323Z ... INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB ... OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE ... WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES ... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED ...WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MBAND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT ... 2116Z ... INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 904 MB ... OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB (This one missed Houston) ...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB ... HURRICANE ALLEN IN1980 WITH 899 MB ... AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALLAGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ... IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER ... THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT. SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ... AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WINDFIELD IS ANTICIPATED ... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA