TIR Post-Race Pace Projection Analysis
The main page of the spreadsheet predicted - based on the 10K times that I put in - that we'd finish in 31:14:03. However, when you got to the guts of the second page of the spreadsheet, it really turned out to be 31:13:43.
Our final finishing time was 31:42:36, for a 9:20 per mile pace. This also means that we were 28 minutes and 53 seconds over that projection.
After Sarah's leg 30, we were still 2 minutes and 46 seconds ahead of our projected time.
The fastest per mile legs were as follows:
6:51 - Leg 15 - Adrienne Langelier - 4.13 miles
6:55 - Leg 27 - Adrienne Langelier - 6.51 miles
7:30 - Leg 1 - Dave Smart - 4.26 miles
7:30 - Leg 3 - Adrienne Langelier - 8.78 miles
7:47 - Leg 8 - Joe Carey - 2.81 miles
7:55 - Leg 21 - Tommy Stunz - 6.76 miles
8:05 - Leg 11 - Tommy Stunz - 6.36 miles
8:05 - Leg 13 - Dave Smart - 4.21 miles
8:05 - Leg 22 - Joe Carey - 5.01 miles
8:07 - Leg 25 - Dave Smart - 5.00 miles
8:09 - Leg 32 - Tommy Stunz - 6.69 miles
8:16 - Leg 37 - Dave Smart - 4.40 miles
8:26 - Leg 34 - Joe Carey - 5.33 miles
8:27 - Leg 2 - Holden Choi - 4.85 miles
8:36 - Leg 28 - Holden Choi - 3.6 miles
These were the only sub 9-minute legs throughout the day.
We had five (5) legs that were 11-minute per or greater and yes, I took two of them (but not leg 23). Leg 10 was in the heat and Leg 35, I admittedly backed off just a little bit.
Dave led the way by being 14:21 ahead of his cumulative projected time. This just tells me that I errored on his projected per mile pace of 8:48.
Adrienne was 8:38 ahead of hers, but her projected pace of 7:37 per mile was very, very conservative. She ran the Huntsville Half Marathon with a 7:21 per mile pace. I should, therefore, have lowered the projection somewhat.
Joe was a cumulative 8:35 ahead of projection. Again, though, I was being conservative with an 8:48 pace because Joe was coming off of an injury.
Tommy was 8:12 ahead of his, but I went with a 50-minute 10K that projected an 8:28 pace. The 7:55 per mile pace on Leg 21 may be a good indication of what he'll be able to do on Saturday during the Bayou City Classic 10K.
We were ahead of the per leg projections 25 of 40 times.
Just a few kernels of data that I've crunched from the time splits that were recorded.
Our final finishing time was 31:42:36, for a 9:20 per mile pace. This also means that we were 28 minutes and 53 seconds over that projection.
After Sarah's leg 30, we were still 2 minutes and 46 seconds ahead of our projected time.
The fastest per mile legs were as follows:
6:51 - Leg 15 - Adrienne Langelier - 4.13 miles
6:55 - Leg 27 - Adrienne Langelier - 6.51 miles
7:30 - Leg 1 - Dave Smart - 4.26 miles
7:30 - Leg 3 - Adrienne Langelier - 8.78 miles
7:47 - Leg 8 - Joe Carey - 2.81 miles
7:55 - Leg 21 - Tommy Stunz - 6.76 miles
8:05 - Leg 11 - Tommy Stunz - 6.36 miles
8:05 - Leg 13 - Dave Smart - 4.21 miles
8:05 - Leg 22 - Joe Carey - 5.01 miles
8:07 - Leg 25 - Dave Smart - 5.00 miles
8:09 - Leg 32 - Tommy Stunz - 6.69 miles
8:16 - Leg 37 - Dave Smart - 4.40 miles
8:26 - Leg 34 - Joe Carey - 5.33 miles
8:27 - Leg 2 - Holden Choi - 4.85 miles
8:36 - Leg 28 - Holden Choi - 3.6 miles
These were the only sub 9-minute legs throughout the day.
We had five (5) legs that were 11-minute per or greater and yes, I took two of them (but not leg 23). Leg 10 was in the heat and Leg 35, I admittedly backed off just a little bit.
Dave led the way by being 14:21 ahead of his cumulative projected time. This just tells me that I errored on his projected per mile pace of 8:48.
Adrienne was 8:38 ahead of hers, but her projected pace of 7:37 per mile was very, very conservative. She ran the Huntsville Half Marathon with a 7:21 per mile pace. I should, therefore, have lowered the projection somewhat.
Joe was a cumulative 8:35 ahead of projection. Again, though, I was being conservative with an 8:48 pace because Joe was coming off of an injury.
Tommy was 8:12 ahead of his, but I went with a 50-minute 10K that projected an 8:28 pace. The 7:55 per mile pace on Leg 21 may be a good indication of what he'll be able to do on Saturday during the Bayou City Classic 10K.
We were ahead of the per leg projections 25 of 40 times.
Just a few kernels of data that I've crunched from the time splits that were recorded.
posted by WalkSports.com | 9:41 PM
12 Comments:
That will look different next time.
I think my leg 28 was also a sub 9.
I was the team handicap... every one needs one! LOL
Interestingly enough, half were ahead of their projected time and half were over.
All this means is that I was too aggressive on some and too conservative on others.
As a captain, I need to be a little bit more inquisitive to where everyone is at.
We live and learn.
Hey, I told you where I was -- not my fault if you didn't listen. ;) I was very happy with my overall average.
I should tell you that you may have a slower time for leg 19 than I actually ran -- Jose forgot to hit the split for a couple minutes, I believe. I posted my times on my blog.
I know, I know. :)
Sarah, you were over the least, actually. 2:06 of cumulative time over and Katy was second in 3:03.
In the long run (no pun intended), you can't compare it to having the fun that we did as a team!
Well, i pretty much feel like I rocked and couldn't be happier with my paces! LOL!
Next year, I think we should take fatigue into account. I know that my pace was great on the first two legs, and awful on the last one where I was really tired. I think Tommy said the spreadsheet slowed down by 30 seconds per mile, but maybe we should pad that a bit more!
Cassie, yes, you were a rock star! You beat your predicted time by a cumulative 6:37 - 5th best on the team.
Sarah, I'll send the spreadsheet around for everybody to look at.
Thanks for the recap Jon. Legs 13 & 25 look right. I thought leg 37 would be slower because of the killer headwind. For leg 1, are you sure that for leg 1 you divided the leg 1 miles into the leg 1 split time? (and not from the group start time). I am surprised by the 7:30 pace for leg 1 - I didn't have any Red Bull yet!
Over the course of > 200 miles, that seems like a pretty close finish to estimated time to me!
I know the people on our champions fit team said the same as Sarah suggests - take fatigue into account next year for the later legs.
Sorry I could not make this, Jon. Looks like you had a blast!
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