Handicapping Texas' Field of Females at Boston
Before two (2) late entrants this week pushed the overall Texas field to 740, there were 311 females with Texas as their registered state set to run in tomorrow's 110th running of the Boston Marathon.
I've analyzed most of the lower bib numbers in each 5-year age group, how the runners have qualified and will offer a prediction of the top Texas finisher in each age group (despite not knowing their recent workouts or training information).
20-24: Elsa Sprunt
Sprunt had a breakthrough race at the Freescale Austin Marathon two months ago with a 2:58:41. No other runner in this age group qualified with a time under 3:10. The closest would be Harker Heights' Marygrace Tilman, who ran 3:11:36 at the Chevron Houston Marathon in January.
25-29: Melisa Christian, D.D.S.
After running 2:48:32 in frigid conditions in Austin, the 29-year-old Dallas native will be the only Texan wearing an elite bib number (F28) on Monday. If she falters, the next logical choice would be Dallas 26-year-old Ashley Graben who ran 3:09:47 at the White Rock Marathon last December.
30-34: Deanna Stoll
The 30-year-old Houstonian, Stoll, ran the Chevron Houston Marathon in January with the fastest qualifying time of all in this age group with a 3:19:28 clocking. Dallas' Jennifer Keller qualified with a 3:23:26 on a tough Big Sur International Marathon course last April. All other runners in this age group qualified with a time of 3:27 or greater, including Austin's Amy Skudlarczyk (3:27:05 in Chicago) and Muna Tabatabai (3:27:22 at Freescale this year).
35-39: Marilyn Potter
Only two (2) runners qualified with a time lower than 3:28. They are Spring's Rochelle Ray and Houston's Marilyn Potter. Both hit Boston's gold at this year's Chevron Houston Marathon with times of 3:18:53 and 3:20:51, respectively. I'll take Potter. Why? Ray will be running Boston for the first time. Potter ran it in 2003 and 2005.
40-44: Caroline Chamness
Caroline, a Houston Strider, hit jackpot so to speak at the Chevron Houston Marathon in January with a time of 3:07:19. No other female in this group qualified for the 110th running in a time of under 3:24. Barring anything unforseen on the course on Monday, the runnerup could be one of the four (4) -- Austin's Anne Espinoza (3:24:15, Chicago), Houston's Jackie Connelly (3:24:17, Houston), Austin's Nancy Dasso (3:25:55, Austin) or Austin's Alise Curry (3:25:09, 2005 Austin).
45-49: Suzy Seeley
She's already run four (4) marathons in 2006, winning the Seabrook Lucky Trails Marathon last month; however, she ripped off a 3:14:27 in Austin (following a sub-3:20 showing in Houston). Houston's Carolyn Parsons, a Bayou City Road Runners member like Seeley, has run the next best qualifying time of all Texans in this age group with a 3:23:51 in Austin.
50-54: Eva Luckey
On the surface, this could be part of a string of four straight age-group slam dunks. Luckey, 50, who runs for Houston Masters Sports Association, turned in an age group qualifying best of 3:30:11 at the Chevron Houston Marathon. However, long-time HARRA member Eva Moldovanyi ran Boston last year in 3:31:05 to earn her trip back. (It was far better than her efforts in 2001 and 2003 where she finished in over 4:30 both races.)
55-59: Karen Bowler
Anything can happen; however, there are three (3) runners in Houston who have been "money" in their area of competition -- Sean Wade, John Hedengren and Karen Bowler. Bowler wasn't happy with her 4:09:06 performance last year at Boston and has been running with a vengenance this spring. She's won her age group in every event including a 3:38:37 at the Freescale Austin Marathon. The only other two runners who qualified with a time under 4 hours (the standard is 4:15) did so in October 2004 -- Arlington's Sher Chapline and Kingwood's Gloria Mahoney.
60-64: Kim Coe
Only four from Texas are in this age group. Coe ran Houston to qualify with a time of 3:57:29. The next closest were Kingwood's Nilda Burgos and Richardson's Barbara Sucher. They qualified at Houston and White Rock, respectively, in 4:20:56 and 4:29:17.
65-69: Joanne Brown
She is the only runner in this age group from Texas (Livingston). The 65-year-old Brown qualified at last February's Myrtle Beach Marathon in 4:39:08. (The age group winner should be Tokyo's Satsuko Suzuki.)
I've analyzed most of the lower bib numbers in each 5-year age group, how the runners have qualified and will offer a prediction of the top Texas finisher in each age group (despite not knowing their recent workouts or training information).
20-24: Elsa Sprunt
Sprunt had a breakthrough race at the Freescale Austin Marathon two months ago with a 2:58:41. No other runner in this age group qualified with a time under 3:10. The closest would be Harker Heights' Marygrace Tilman, who ran 3:11:36 at the Chevron Houston Marathon in January.
25-29: Melisa Christian, D.D.S.
After running 2:48:32 in frigid conditions in Austin, the 29-year-old Dallas native will be the only Texan wearing an elite bib number (F28) on Monday. If she falters, the next logical choice would be Dallas 26-year-old Ashley Graben who ran 3:09:47 at the White Rock Marathon last December.
30-34: Deanna Stoll
The 30-year-old Houstonian, Stoll, ran the Chevron Houston Marathon in January with the fastest qualifying time of all in this age group with a 3:19:28 clocking. Dallas' Jennifer Keller qualified with a 3:23:26 on a tough Big Sur International Marathon course last April. All other runners in this age group qualified with a time of 3:27 or greater, including Austin's Amy Skudlarczyk (3:27:05 in Chicago) and Muna Tabatabai (3:27:22 at Freescale this year).
35-39: Marilyn Potter
Only two (2) runners qualified with a time lower than 3:28. They are Spring's Rochelle Ray and Houston's Marilyn Potter. Both hit Boston's gold at this year's Chevron Houston Marathon with times of 3:18:53 and 3:20:51, respectively. I'll take Potter. Why? Ray will be running Boston for the first time. Potter ran it in 2003 and 2005.
40-44: Caroline Chamness
Caroline, a Houston Strider, hit jackpot so to speak at the Chevron Houston Marathon in January with a time of 3:07:19. No other female in this group qualified for the 110th running in a time of under 3:24. Barring anything unforseen on the course on Monday, the runnerup could be one of the four (4) -- Austin's Anne Espinoza (3:24:15, Chicago), Houston's Jackie Connelly (3:24:17, Houston), Austin's Nancy Dasso (3:25:55, Austin) or Austin's Alise Curry (3:25:09, 2005 Austin).
45-49: Suzy Seeley
She's already run four (4) marathons in 2006, winning the Seabrook Lucky Trails Marathon last month; however, she ripped off a 3:14:27 in Austin (following a sub-3:20 showing in Houston). Houston's Carolyn Parsons, a Bayou City Road Runners member like Seeley, has run the next best qualifying time of all Texans in this age group with a 3:23:51 in Austin.
50-54: Eva Luckey
On the surface, this could be part of a string of four straight age-group slam dunks. Luckey, 50, who runs for Houston Masters Sports Association, turned in an age group qualifying best of 3:30:11 at the Chevron Houston Marathon. However, long-time HARRA member Eva Moldovanyi ran Boston last year in 3:31:05 to earn her trip back. (It was far better than her efforts in 2001 and 2003 where she finished in over 4:30 both races.)
55-59: Karen Bowler
Anything can happen; however, there are three (3) runners in Houston who have been "money" in their area of competition -- Sean Wade, John Hedengren and Karen Bowler. Bowler wasn't happy with her 4:09:06 performance last year at Boston and has been running with a vengenance this spring. She's won her age group in every event including a 3:38:37 at the Freescale Austin Marathon. The only other two runners who qualified with a time under 4 hours (the standard is 4:15) did so in October 2004 -- Arlington's Sher Chapline and Kingwood's Gloria Mahoney.
60-64: Kim Coe
Only four from Texas are in this age group. Coe ran Houston to qualify with a time of 3:57:29. The next closest were Kingwood's Nilda Burgos and Richardson's Barbara Sucher. They qualified at Houston and White Rock, respectively, in 4:20:56 and 4:29:17.
65-69: Joanne Brown
She is the only runner in this age group from Texas (Livingston). The 65-year-old Brown qualified at last February's Myrtle Beach Marathon in 4:39:08. (The age group winner should be Tokyo's Satsuko Suzuki.)
posted by WalkSports.com | 11:39 PM
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