Chevron Houston Marathon Prediction
At Run The Woodlands 5K #202 on Saturday, I told 29-year Chevron Houston Marathon veteran Wayne Rutledge that I didn't think that the event would sell out this year.
As of today, the Chevron Houston Marathon website states that they are 62% full.
This means that against their 18,000-runner cap, they've sold approximately 11,160 entries.
From the event's March 20, 2008 press release:
"Online registration re-opens April 1 for the marathon, half marathon and 5K. Early registration was open from race weekend until Jan. 31, with more than 3,000 participants taking advantage of the early sign-up."
January 13 to January 31 -- More than 3,000
April 1 to June 16 -- 8,000 to be in the ballpark
So that's 77 calendar days, which means they've been selling just under 110 a day at the current prices. Another 14 days at that rate (and perhaps a pick up towards the deadline) may add another 2,000. (That's being generous past the 110 times 14, which equals 1,540.)
Let's just say that they sell 2,000 more entries before July 1 and that it gets them over the 13,000 benchmark.
I just honestly don't see another 5,000 paying the highest prices when both gas and airfare prices have increased dramatically since April 1 - when registration re-opened.
Does it mean that the event is any less worthy? No, not at all. It is just that even a sport which has been in an incredible growth mode is going to be tempered a bit by the recession.
The ones that won't will be Boston and New York City.
Thoughts?
As of today, the Chevron Houston Marathon website states that they are 62% full.
This means that against their 18,000-runner cap, they've sold approximately 11,160 entries.
From the event's March 20, 2008 press release:
"Online registration re-opens April 1 for the marathon, half marathon and 5K. Early registration was open from race weekend until Jan. 31, with more than 3,000 participants taking advantage of the early sign-up."
January 13 to January 31 -- More than 3,000
April 1 to June 16 -- 8,000 to be in the ballpark
So that's 77 calendar days, which means they've been selling just under 110 a day at the current prices. Another 14 days at that rate (and perhaps a pick up towards the deadline) may add another 2,000. (That's being generous past the 110 times 14, which equals 1,540.)
Let's just say that they sell 2,000 more entries before July 1 and that it gets them over the 13,000 benchmark.
I just honestly don't see another 5,000 paying the highest prices when both gas and airfare prices have increased dramatically since April 1 - when registration re-opened.
Does it mean that the event is any less worthy? No, not at all. It is just that even a sport which has been in an incredible growth mode is going to be tempered a bit by the recession.
The ones that won't will be Boston and New York City.
Thoughts?
posted by WalkSports.com | 4:00 PM
3 Comments:
Maybe, but you're assuming people will sign up at a constant rate. There are a lot of people that probably haven't given a though to signing up yet. After all, it's only June. When they start to get close to the limit, I'm sure you'll see another acceleration up until they sell out, just like last year. A lot of runners are procrastinators when it comes to signing up -- even though waiting means paying more.
I keep tabs on the percent sold, and the only reason I havent signed up was originally because I was waiting to see if I got into NYC.
Now that I have, I am still waffling on whether or not I think I can do the full in Houston 2 months later...or do I just do the half?
And then the other reason was just that I am now just procrastinating, because I think its safe to say my ass just needs to do the half...
It is definitely doable to do both and do them with a quality effort. Marine Corps was my first marathon and I did that just to finish. I came back 11 weeks later, following a plan pretty closely, and put together my second best marathon ever - 4:55:03 (and I beat Sarah too!)
The following year, I wasn't prepared for NYC, had already planned on doing the half with Waverly, but did the Texas Marathon in Kingwood on New Year's Day ... after doing Sunmart 50K ... yet it wasn't as good as Houston the year before.
I would probably now do NYC, register for the half in Houston (because you just do one of the races if you live here) and then gear towards another like Austin and prepare the right way (which you did for Houston this past year).
I'm sure the guys with the faster times would tell you the same thing. ;)
Post a Comment
<< Home