Handicapping Texas' Field of Men at Boston
Before two (2) late entrants this week pushed the overall Texas field to 740, there were 427 males with Texas as their registered state set to run in tomorrow's 110th running of the Boston Marathon.
I've analyzed most of the lower bib numbers in each 5-year age group, how the runners have qualified and will offer a prediction of the top Texas finisher in each age group (despite not knowing their recent workouts or training information).
18-19: Clay Freeman
The 19-year-old from Nederland ran a 3:05:24 at the Chevron Houston Marathon while the only other entrant is Georgetown native Matthew Buchhorn, a 19-year-old who ran 3:09:51 at Freescale.
20-24: Craig Ottman
Aside from an injury, the 23-year-old from Fort Worth should be the fastest Texan in this age group without a problem. He was the top Texas finisher in his age group at Boston in '05 and ran 2:45:45 at White Rock and 2:41:54 at Freescale in February. Only John Gonzalez and Steve Richard, a 21-year-old from College Station and a 24-year-old from Plano, ran under 3 hours -- both doing so at White Rock in December with times of 2:53:24 and 2:55:44.
25-29: Keith Pierce
When a runner is given bib number 43, you pick him. That is what Pierce, a 25-year-old from Denton, was given after running a 2:25:01 at Allentown, Pennsylvania's Steamtown Marathon last October. The next closest? San Antonio's Gregory Destefano, 29, who ran 2:42:37 at the Detroit Free Press International Marathon last fall. While Kingwood's Andy Gardner was the lead runner in this age group at Boston last year, only Dallas' Ryan Wenos, 28, and Beaumont's Pete Strawn, 27, ran under 2:50 in preparation at White Rock and Akron, respectively.
30-34: Gerard Martinez
Although Los Fresnos' Marty Infante, 34, led Texans in this age group at Boston last year and ran a 2:49:48 at the Chicago Marathon in October, I'm taking Cedar Park's 31-year-old Gerard Martinez, who ran a 2:47:20 in January at Chevron Houston. Austin's Jonathan Friedmann , 31, ran 2:57:30 at Freescale while Kevin Von Eschen, 33, from Kingwood ran under 3 hours -- however, it was last January in Houston at 2:55:28.
35-39: Todd Blanchard
Stephenville's Shannon Forehand, 37, and Blanchard went 1-2 in this age group last April in Boston; however Blanchard gets the nod after running 2:46:47 at the New York City Marathon last November. The next 10 runners in bib number order all qualify with times under 3 hours. An outside pick would be Dallas 35-year-old Andrew Bitmansour, who ran 2:53:58 at Dallas' White Rock Marathon in December.
40-44: James Cleary
And Cleary must have been sandbagging on his entry form. Listed 7th in low bib numbers, Cleary's 2:42:54 at Freescale Austin in February is six (6) minutes faster than Dallas' Greg Pace, 41, who ran 2:48:52 at the Chicago Marathon. Cleary defeated Austin's Jeff Glaser, 40, in this age group last year; however, Glaser ran 3:06. Houston's two entries in the top 10 bib number? Katy's Jack McClintic, 44, the new Power In Motion director for HARRA, and Houston's Jake Tonge, 43 -- both excellent runners and great guys!
45-49: Richard Peoples, Jr.
This is the toughest age-group to prognosticate as the six lowest bib number posted qualifying times with two minutes and 37 seconds of each other. Austin's Mac Allen, 48, defeated Elias Deetlefs, 48, of Houston and Tony Stuart, 48, of Amarillo last April in Boston. Allen is the safe pick because his time is the fastest (2:51:05) and it was at Boston; however, I like Houston's Richard Peoples, 46, who ran 2:51:50 at Chevron Houston in January.
50-54: Stephen Jayson
The 53-year-old from Stockdale ran 2:52:24 at the Boston Marathon last April; however, his biggest Texas age-group competition could comes from Katy's Steve Brammer, who ran 2:54:29 in Austin two months ago. 52-year-old Houstonian Jay Hendrickson, who also qualified in under three hours at 2:59:52 at Chevron Houston, was second last April to Jayson but is dealing with lower back problems according to his blog, runbayou.blogspot.com.
55-59: Robert Benson
The 56-year-old Dallas native clocked the fastest qualifying time in this age group in December by running a 3:19:18 at the White Rock Marathon. Fellow Dallasite Lawrence Adams, 55, ran Boston in 3:24:04 last April while six (6) others ran under 3:30 to qualify. The best of which may be Florence's Dean Ivory, 58, who ran 3:27:21 at St. George Marathon in Utah last fall and Houston's Vard Nelson, 57, who posted a 3:28:21 at the Chevron Houston Marathon.
60-64: Kenneth Ruane
A very talented runner, Ruane, 64, of Orange, ran Houston in a lightning-quick 3:18:09. Only two other qualifiers that are entered ran under 3:30 -- Dallas 60-year-old Jack Becker (3:28:02; Freescale '06) and Austin's James Wiley, 60 (3:29:20; Freescale '06).
65-69: Larry Lindeen
The 65-year-old Houstonian ran 3:38:48 at the Freescale Austin Marathon. The next five runners - in bib numbers - all ran between 4:12 and 4:14 to qualify, including 67-year-old Hewitt native Cliff Burgess (4:12:58 at Houston).
70-74: Harold Wilson
The 73-year-old Tyler native was the fastest 70-74 runner altogether at Boston last year and ran 3:35:36 and 3:32:42 in 2002 and 2003 before last year's 3:44:29. As long as the slip isn't any more, he should still beat San Antonio's 71-year-old Dan Shuff, who nailed down a 3:49:25 at Freescale two months ago.
I've analyzed most of the lower bib numbers in each 5-year age group, how the runners have qualified and will offer a prediction of the top Texas finisher in each age group (despite not knowing their recent workouts or training information).
18-19: Clay Freeman
The 19-year-old from Nederland ran a 3:05:24 at the Chevron Houston Marathon while the only other entrant is Georgetown native Matthew Buchhorn, a 19-year-old who ran 3:09:51 at Freescale.
20-24: Craig Ottman
Aside from an injury, the 23-year-old from Fort Worth should be the fastest Texan in this age group without a problem. He was the top Texas finisher in his age group at Boston in '05 and ran 2:45:45 at White Rock and 2:41:54 at Freescale in February. Only John Gonzalez and Steve Richard, a 21-year-old from College Station and a 24-year-old from Plano, ran under 3 hours -- both doing so at White Rock in December with times of 2:53:24 and 2:55:44.
25-29: Keith Pierce
When a runner is given bib number 43, you pick him. That is what Pierce, a 25-year-old from Denton, was given after running a 2:25:01 at Allentown, Pennsylvania's Steamtown Marathon last October. The next closest? San Antonio's Gregory Destefano, 29, who ran 2:42:37 at the Detroit Free Press International Marathon last fall. While Kingwood's Andy Gardner was the lead runner in this age group at Boston last year, only Dallas' Ryan Wenos, 28, and Beaumont's Pete Strawn, 27, ran under 2:50 in preparation at White Rock and Akron, respectively.
30-34: Gerard Martinez
Although Los Fresnos' Marty Infante, 34, led Texans in this age group at Boston last year and ran a 2:49:48 at the Chicago Marathon in October, I'm taking Cedar Park's 31-year-old Gerard Martinez, who ran a 2:47:20 in January at Chevron Houston. Austin's Jonathan Friedmann , 31, ran 2:57:30 at Freescale while Kevin Von Eschen, 33, from Kingwood ran under 3 hours -- however, it was last January in Houston at 2:55:28.
35-39: Todd Blanchard
Stephenville's Shannon Forehand, 37, and Blanchard went 1-2 in this age group last April in Boston; however Blanchard gets the nod after running 2:46:47 at the New York City Marathon last November. The next 10 runners in bib number order all qualify with times under 3 hours. An outside pick would be Dallas 35-year-old Andrew Bitmansour, who ran 2:53:58 at Dallas' White Rock Marathon in December.
40-44: James Cleary
And Cleary must have been sandbagging on his entry form. Listed 7th in low bib numbers, Cleary's 2:42:54 at Freescale Austin in February is six (6) minutes faster than Dallas' Greg Pace, 41, who ran 2:48:52 at the Chicago Marathon. Cleary defeated Austin's Jeff Glaser, 40, in this age group last year; however, Glaser ran 3:06. Houston's two entries in the top 10 bib number? Katy's Jack McClintic, 44, the new Power In Motion director for HARRA, and Houston's Jake Tonge, 43 -- both excellent runners and great guys!
45-49: Richard Peoples, Jr.
This is the toughest age-group to prognosticate as the six lowest bib number posted qualifying times with two minutes and 37 seconds of each other. Austin's Mac Allen, 48, defeated Elias Deetlefs, 48, of Houston and Tony Stuart, 48, of Amarillo last April in Boston. Allen is the safe pick because his time is the fastest (2:51:05) and it was at Boston; however, I like Houston's Richard Peoples, 46, who ran 2:51:50 at Chevron Houston in January.
50-54: Stephen Jayson
The 53-year-old from Stockdale ran 2:52:24 at the Boston Marathon last April; however, his biggest Texas age-group competition could comes from Katy's Steve Brammer, who ran 2:54:29 in Austin two months ago. 52-year-old Houstonian Jay Hendrickson, who also qualified in under three hours at 2:59:52 at Chevron Houston, was second last April to Jayson but is dealing with lower back problems according to his blog, runbayou.blogspot.com.
55-59: Robert Benson
The 56-year-old Dallas native clocked the fastest qualifying time in this age group in December by running a 3:19:18 at the White Rock Marathon. Fellow Dallasite Lawrence Adams, 55, ran Boston in 3:24:04 last April while six (6) others ran under 3:30 to qualify. The best of which may be Florence's Dean Ivory, 58, who ran 3:27:21 at St. George Marathon in Utah last fall and Houston's Vard Nelson, 57, who posted a 3:28:21 at the Chevron Houston Marathon.
60-64: Kenneth Ruane
A very talented runner, Ruane, 64, of Orange, ran Houston in a lightning-quick 3:18:09. Only two other qualifiers that are entered ran under 3:30 -- Dallas 60-year-old Jack Becker (3:28:02; Freescale '06) and Austin's James Wiley, 60 (3:29:20; Freescale '06).
65-69: Larry Lindeen
The 65-year-old Houstonian ran 3:38:48 at the Freescale Austin Marathon. The next five runners - in bib numbers - all ran between 4:12 and 4:14 to qualify, including 67-year-old Hewitt native Cliff Burgess (4:12:58 at Houston).
70-74: Harold Wilson
The 73-year-old Tyler native was the fastest 70-74 runner altogether at Boston last year and ran 3:35:36 and 3:32:42 in 2002 and 2003 before last year's 3:44:29. As long as the slip isn't any more, he should still beat San Antonio's 71-year-old Dan Shuff, who nailed down a 3:49:25 at Freescale two months ago.
posted by WalkSports.com | 8:19 AM
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